The Republicans: Where Are They Going? Where Will They Be?

Most Young Republicans I meet wish that the Republican Party was more libertarian; most young conservatives I meet wish that the Republican Party were more socially conservative. The reason that I bring this up is that I think this last election has the potential to make a huge rift appear in the Republican Party and conservative coalition. It is already emerging on the blogs and in the media, with N. Gregory Mankiw and David Frum taking up the libertarian banner and Ross Douthat and Doug Wilson still pushing for conservatism. (As usual, I don't expect Rush Limbaugh to budge.) Here, however, is how I see the matter: The Rockefeller Republicans--Lincoln Chafee, et al.--have been completely wiped out, not because of the "Rockefeller" adjective, but because of the "Republican" label. They are unlikely to emerge again as a significant force within the Republican Party, although another branch who shares their same basic precepts might emerge. The social conservatives, while they have not been discredited by anything that's happened in the past eight years, have been abandoned and have never been mainstream enough to stand alone. Therefore, they cling to that which they can, whether it be in the person of conservative Democrats or conservative Republicans in the South and Midwest. The libertarians, while they are still generally respected by the mainstream media (I am not talking about the Libertarian Party, mind you), are on the wrong side of history in that the trends are not now oriented toward smaller government. Technically, I think that the elite class wants less government, but at the same time they feel guilty about a large segment of the population not having health-care; they want universal health-care within a libertarian framework, but the realization of this is unlikely. All this is to say that the Republican Party is up for grabs and what happens next will be decided by how Obama governs and whom he offends. If he governs as a neoliberal, supports freetrade deals, and takes a soft line on illegal immigration, then the populists--Tim Pawlenty, Bobby Jindal, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin (God help us)--will become the naturally leaders of the Republican Party. If, on the other hand, the Obama maintains the working class vote, than the libertarians--Ruddy Giuliani, George Pataki, Tom Ridge--will be the party's natural leaders. Of course, if Obama offends neither demographic, or both, than a candidate who synthesizes elements of both ideologies may be more appropriate (think Charlie Crist, Mitt Romney, Mark Sanford). In other words, there is no saying where the Republican Party will go in the next four years; the next move is up to the Democrats.