Mike Huckabee appears to be, more or less, the winner of the Iowa caucases by a significant margin. But I doubt that he is going to go on to win the Republican nomination. The next few state primaries will probably look something like this (I'm not sure that the order is correct):
1. New Hampshire - John McCain
2. South Carolina - Mike Huckabee
3. Nevada - Rudy Giuliani or Mitt Romney (to close to call)
4. Michigan - Mitt Romney
5. Florida - Rudy Giuliani
6. California - Rudy Giuliani
7. New Jersey - Rudy Giuliani
This is to say that Giuliani is most likely going to be the presidential candidate, but is also probably going to lose the presidency in November. The reason is because he has been an effectively ineffective campaigner; the only candidate who has been as unimpressive is Fred Thompson. (I just heard that Barak Obama won the Iowa caucus for the Democrats, by the way; bad news from Giuliani.) Giuliani's campaign, so far, has been one of retreat. He may have polled well in New Hampshire, but he didn't capitalize; he may have done well in Michigan (though he probably would not have won), but, once again, he will probably fail to do even this. In spite of this, He started out as the front-runner and has not lost this position yet. But, for the presidential nomination, we cannot win with a candidate who spends his time running away.
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